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Risk Management: With Applications from the Offshore by Terje Aven, Jan-Erik Vinnem

By Terje Aven, Jan-Erik Vinnem

This booklet offers a danger administration framework designed to accomplish higher judgements and more suitable results. It provides an in-depth dialogue of a few primary ideas of danger administration on the topic of using anticipated values, uncertainty dealing with, and possibility recognition standards. numerous examples from the offshore petroleum are incorporated to demonstrate using the framework, however it is usually utilized in different areas.

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Risk Management: With Applications from the Offshore Petroleum Industry (Springer Series in Reliability Engineering)

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Extra info for Risk Management: With Applications from the Offshore Petroleum Industry (Springer Series in Reliability Engineering)

Sample text

We may for example refer to the danger of an accident occurring without reference to a specific interpretation of a probability, either (a) or (b). However, as soon as we address the meaning of such a statement and the issue of uncertainty, we must clarify whether we are adopting interpretation (a) or (b). If there is a real risk level, it is relevant to consider and discuss the uncertainties of the risk estimates compared to the real risk. If probability is a measure of the analyst’s uncertainty, a risk assignment is a judgement and there is no reference to a correct and objective risk level.

Unconditionally, the consequences (X) are uncertain, and this uncertainty is defined by the uncertainties of the factors Z. To study the criterion (iii), suppose that p represents the “real” risk, quantified by the probability distribution of X, and let p* be an estimate of p derived from a detailed risk analysis of the activity. Since the uncertainties in this estimate are considered large, relative to the real p, the precautionary principle may be applied following criterion (iii). We see that using (i), (ii) or (iii), we may arrive at different conclusions.

Essential for the analysis is the distinction between ethics of the mind and ethics of the consequences, which has several implications that are discussed. 1 Perspectives on Risk A common definition of risk is that risk is the combination of probability and consequences, where the consequences relate to various aspects of HES, for example loss of life and injuries. This definition is in line with that used by ISO (2002). , what is called the expected value in probability calculus. If the focus is the number of fatalities during a certain period of time, X, then the expected value is given by E[X], whereas risk defined as the combination of probability and consequence expresses probabilities for different outcomes of X, for example the probability that X does not exceed 10.

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